Quick Answer: Partly. Virginia is building clean energy faster than ever, but it is not on pace to retire every fossil fuel plant by 2045. Our Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045 check-in found gains: offshore wind began delivering power in March 2026, and lawmakers expanded storage and distributed solar requirements. The catch is surging data center demand, which has led Virginia’s largest utility to say it sees no viable path to full fossil retirement by 2045, and the law’s reliability exception is already being used to approve new gas plants.
Key takeaways
- The VCEA requires 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045 for Virginia’s largest utility and by 2050 for Appalachian Power.
- In 2026, offshore wind came online, the largest utility’s storage mandate grew to 20,000 MW, and Virginia rejoined the regional carbon market.
- Data center growth is the single biggest threat to the timeline. The utility projects its demand will roughly double by 2045.
- The utility’s own planning keeps natural gas running past 2045 under the law’s reliability exception.
- For homeowners, bills face pressure from several directions. Rooftop solar with full Net Metering credit is one lever you control.
What Is the Virginia Clean Economy Act?
The Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) is a 2020 state law that requires Virginia’s two investor-owned utilities to move to 100% carbon-free electricity. Virginia was the first Southern state to adopt a target like this. The law works through four main tools:
- A mandatory Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS): a clean energy percentage that rises every year.
- An Energy Efficiency Resource Standard: required reductions in electricity use.
- Build targets for solar, onshore wind, offshore wind, and battery storage.
- Required retirement of carbon-emitting power plants, subject to a reliability exception.
| Utility | 100% clean deadline | 2026 RPS target | Who it serves |
| Virginia’s largest utility (Phase II) | 2045 | 29% | Most of central, eastern, and Northern Virginia |
| Appalachian Power (Phase I) | 2050 | 17% | Western and Southwest Virginia |
| Electric cooperatives | Not covered by the RPS | — | Rural areas; set their own terms |
Do Nuclear Power and Natural Gas Count as “Clean” Under the VCEA?
Nuclear is carbon-free, and the VCEA does not require nuclear plants to close. Nuclear power supplied about 26% of Virginia’s in-state generation in 2025. The RPS percentage is calculated on each utility’s non-nuclear retail electricity sales, so nuclear doesn’t count toward the RPS, but it also doesn’t have to be replaced. For homeowners evaluating changes to Virginia’s energy mix, understanding Virginia Solar Consumer Protection can also help when researching solar policies, utility requirements, and consumer considerations.
Natural gas is not clean under the VCEA. Gas plants must retire by the deadlines unless regulators grant a reliability exception.
Virginia Clean Economy Act Progress 2045 Scorecard (Fall 2026)
This Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045 scorecard uses the same measures every quarter, so you can see exactly what moved since the last update.
| Measure | Starting point | Where it stands (September 2026) | Status |
| Offshore wind (2.6 GW) | Two pilot turbines | First commercial power delivered in March 2026. About 81% complete as of July 31, with the final turbine now expected by the end of 2027 | ⚠️ Delivering, but delayed |
| Battery storage mandate (largest utility) | 2,700 MW | Raised to 16,000 MW short-duration and 4,000 MW long-duration storage by 2045 | ✅ Expanded |
| Distributed (rooftop-scale) solar requirement | 1% of RPS | Raised to 4.5% for 2026–2030, then 5% through 2045 | ✅ Expanded |
| Local solar bans | Nearly two-thirds of counties effectively prohibited utility-scale solar, per the solar industry | A new state law voids countywide bans on solar | ✅ Improving |
| Regional carbon market (RGGI) | Withdrew in 2023 | Rejoined effective July 1, 2026 | ✅ Back in |
| In-state solar + wind share of generation | Small share in 2020 | About 8.5% of in-state utility-scale generation in 2025 (EIA) | ⚠️ Growing, still small |
| New gas capacity | VCEA limits new fossil plants to reliability needs | 944 MW Chesterfield plant approved; 3,000 MW Cumberland plant proposed | ❌ Moving the other way |
| Utility’s 2045 outlook | — | Says full fossil retirement by 2045 is not viable | ❌ At risk |
What’s Working
- Offshore wind is live. Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind began sending power to the grid on March 23, 2026. When finished, its 176 turbines will be able to power up to 660,000 homes. The project kept moving despite a federal stop-work order in December 2025.
- Storage just got a major upgrade. Governor Spanberger signed HB 895 and SB 448 in April 2026, and they took effect July 1. Appalachian Power’s storage targets also rose, to 780 MW of short-duration storage by 2040 and 520 MW of long-duration storage by 2045.
- Solar siting rules changed. Since July 1, 2026, local governments can still deny individual solar projects, but they must send their reasons to state regulators and can no longer ban solar countywide.
- The clean energy economy has grown. Advanced Energy United counts about 118,000 jobs in Virginia’s advanced energy industry.
Is Virginia Meeting Its Annual Renewable Portfolio Standard Targets?
Annual RPS benchmarks are the most concrete yardstick in any Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045 assessment, because they set a legal clean energy percentage for every year until the deadline.
Utilities meet each year’s target by retiring renewable energy certificates (RECs). One REC represents one megawatt-hour of renewable generation, and some RECs can come from projects elsewhere in the PJM regional grid. That’s why a 29% RPS target and Virginia’s roughly 8.5% in-state solar and wind share aren’t a contradiction. They measure different things. For homeowners researching Virginia solar incentives, understanding how RECs and renewable energy requirements work can also provide useful context when evaluating the state’s solar policies.
VCEA RPS benchmarks, 2026–2035 (Va. Code § 56-585.5)
| Year | Largest utility (2045 deadline) | Appalachian Power (2050 deadline) |
| 2026 | 29% | 17% |
| 2027 | 32% | 20% |
| 2028 | 35% | 24% |
| 2029 | 38% | 27% |
| 2030 | 41% | 30% |
| 2031 | 45% | 33% |
| 2032 | 49% | 36% |
| 2033 | 52% | 39% |
| 2034 | 55% | 42% |
| 2035 | 59% | 45% |
There are signs of strain ahead:
- A deadline was pushed back. The 2026 legislature delayed the largest utility’s requirement that 75% of its RECs come from in-state sources, moving it from 2025 to 2027.
- SCC staff project a shortfall. In testimony on the utility’s 2025 RPS plan, staff concluded that even after building 17.5 GW of solar and 3.4 GW of wind, the utility will not have enough RECs to meet the RPS starting in 2036. Staff estimated about $5.32 billion in resulting penalties.
- New projects face cost questions. The same staff opposed most of the utility’s newly proposed solar projects, citing their negative net present values.
What Happens If a Utility Misses Its RPS Target?
It pays deficiency payments. These are set in law at $45 to $75 per megawatt-hour and rise 1% per year. Half of the revenue goes to clean energy job training in historically economically disadvantaged communities. Utilities can seek to recover compliance costs from customers, which is one reason affordability now drives so much of the debate.
Why Data Centers Are the Biggest Threat to the 2045 Goal
No factor weighs more heavily on Virginia Clean Economy Act progress toward 2045 projections than data centers. The RPS is a percentage of electricity sales, so when demand grows, the amount of clean energy needed to hit the same percentage grows with it. This connection is explored further in Data Center Power Demand Solar Virginia, particularly as rising data center electricity demand influences the need for additional clean energy generation.
If demand doubles, the utility has to build or buy twice as much clean energy just to hit the same percentage.
That scenario is close to what the utility expects. In its 2025 Update to the 2024 Integrated Resource Plan, it projected demand growing about 5% per year and doubling by 2045, driven mostly by data centers. Its SCC filings also show about 70 GW of data center interconnection requests in its territory. That is roughly three times its all-time peak demand.
Should Data Centers Pay More of the Cost?
This is one of the most active debates in Richmond. The main moves so far:
- A new rate class for large customers. Starting January 1, 2027, customers using more than 25 MW (mostly data centers) move to the new GS-5 rate class. It requires 14-year contracts and a monthly minimum bill. That minimum is based on 85% of contracted transmission and distribution demand plus 60% of contracted generation demand.
- The governor’s Data Center Accountability Framework. Announced September 18, 2026, it proposes shifting more energy infrastructure costs to data centers, limiting on-site gas generation, and banning nondisclosure agreements. It does not include a moratorium on new data centers.
- The debate over who pays. The utility says data centers already pay a larger share of transmission costs than they did five years ago. Critics argue residential customers are still subsidizing the buildout. Expect this fight in the 2027 General Assembly session, which begins in January.
The Reliability Exception: How Virginia Could Miss 100% and Still Follow the Law
The VCEA lets utilities keep carbon-emitting plants running if shutting them down would “threaten the reliability or security of electric service to customers.” The utility’s current planning relies on that provision.
The utility’s three 2045 scenarios (2025 Update to the 2024 Integrated Resource Plan)
| Scenario | Estimated construction cost | What it means |
| Company preferred plan | $91.8 billion | Seeks a reliability exception; natural gas keeps running past 2045 |
| Least-cost VCEA plan (without EPA rules) | $80.1 billion | Keeps some fossil capacity |
| Forced retirements by 2045 | $270.4 billion | The only fully compliant path: 78% renewable capacity, 14% nuclear, 4% gas. The utility calls it not feasible |
Two gas projects show the exception in action:
- Chesterfield Energy Reliability Center. This is a 944 MW, $1.47 billion peaker plant designed to run on the hottest and coldest days of the year. Regulators approved it in November 2025 after finding an imminent threat to reliability, and reaffirmed that approval in February 2026. Opponents have appealed to the Supreme Court of Virginia. It is expected online in 2029.
- Cumberland Energy Center. This is a proposed 3,000 MW combined-cycle plant that would be the largest gas plant in the state. Cumberland County’s planning commission recommended approval 5–1 in August 2026. If approved, construction would start in 2029, and the plant would take about ten years to come online.
Will Virginia Need More Natural Gas or Imported Power?
Under the utility’s plans, yes, at least for gas. The utility counts on only a small share of its future capacity coming from power bought on the regional market, because it treats heavy reliance on imports as a reliability risk. That leaves new in-state generation as the main option, and today’s plans include gas alongside solar, storage, and offshore wind. Because customers ultimately help pay for new generation and grid investments through utility rates, the cost and mix of these projects can influence Virginia Beach Electricity Rates over time, particularly as the utility balances reliability needs with the expense of adding new capacity.
The Other Roadblocks: Land, Transmission, Offshore Wind, and Nuclear
Can Virginia Build Solar Fast Enough With Local Pushback?
It’s still an open question. The 2026 siting law ends countywide bans, but counties can still reject projects one at a time. These changes are part of the broader discussion around SB 347, HB 711 & Virginia Solar Siting, as local governments continue determining how solar projects will be reviewed and approved. Botetourt County, for example, is still revising its solar rules, with that review now running through the end of 2026.
How Much Farmland Should Go to Solar, and Does It Cause Runoff or Erosion?
Utility-scale solar needs open land, and much of it is in rural counties. Concerns about farmland loss, stormwater runoff, and habitat are among the most common reasons projects are denied. Virginia Energy has studied the land-use impacts of utility-scale solar. Siting standards and model ordinances are the state’s main tools for managing these concerns without blocking projects outright.
Does Virginia Have Enough Transmission and Storage?
Not yet. The new storage law sets targets through 2045. It also calls for statewide safety standards and for model local ordinances, which are due December 1, 2026. Transmission expansion is moving through PJM, but new lines take years to build. Our look at the rise of battery storage in Virginia covers why storage is central to the 2045 math.
Can Offshore Wind Stay Affordable?
That’s uncertain. Beyond the construction delays, federal tax credits end for wind projects placed in service after December 31, 2027, unless construction started before July 4, 2026. The SCC has noted this will make future VCEA-compliant projects harder to secure.
Should Nuclear Play a Bigger Role?
It already plays a large one, at about 26% of in-state generation. Appalachian Power has asked regulators for approval to take early steps toward developing a small modular reactor. New nuclear power also appears in the largest utility’s fully compliant 2045 scenario, which is part of why that scenario is so expensive.
What Does the VCEA Mean for Your Electric Bill?
Several cost pressures are hitting at once:
| Cost driver | Impact on typical residential bills | Status |
| Base rate increase (SCC Case PUR-2025-00058) | +11.24/monthin2026,+2.36/month in 2027 | Approved |
| RGGI carbon costs | Approximately $10–13/month (based on the utility’s SCC filing) | The utility has asked the SCC to reinstate its RGGI rider |
| Chesterfield gas plant | Recovered through a separate rider | Approved; under appeal |
| Future RPS compliance and deficiency costs | Not yet quantified for bills | Depends on build pace |
For context, the largest utility’s average residential bill is about $161/month. RGGI allowances have also become more expensive. The first auction since Virginia’s return, held September 9, 2026, cleared at $37.65 per allowance. At Virginia’s last auction in December 2023, the price was $14.88.
Help for income-qualified households includes the Percentage of Income Payment Program (PIPP) created under the VCEA, the utility’s EnergyShare program, and federal LIHEAP assistance.
What homeowners can control is where their own power comes from:
- Rooftop solar with full Net Metering credit. In an April 30, 2026 ruling, the SCC preserved full retail 1:1 Net Metering credit for customers of Virginia’s largest utility. Appalachian Power customers also keep 1:1 credit and 12-month netting.
- Battery backup. Batteries add resilience as the grid gets tighter.
- Switch Together. This statewide group-buying program averages a 23% installation discount, according to the Governor’s Office. Enrollment runs through October 15, 2026.
Can the VCEA Be Repealed or Delayed?
Yes. The VCEA is a state statute, so any General Assembly session can amend or repeal it. In 2026, advocates reported that lawmakers defeated 16 bills to repeal or weaken the law, while making targeted changes such as delaying the in-state REC requirement. The current administration supports the goal. Its 2026 Virginia Energy Plan is built around a net-zero carbon economy across all sectors by 2045, and the final plan is scheduled for release on October 1.
The Verdict: Is Virginia on Track for 2045?
So where does Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045 stand as of fall 2026? It depends on which part of the goal you measure.
- Building clean energy: on track and accelerating. Offshore wind is producing power, storage mandates have multiplied, and solar siting barriers are falling.
- Annual RPS targets: under growing pressure. SCC staff project a shortfall beginning in 2036, and demand growth keeps raising the bar.
- Literal 100% carbon-free by 2045: off track under current forecasts. Reaching it would take a much faster buildout of storage, transmission, and nuclear, or slower data center growth. Otherwise, expect the reliability exception to keep gas on the grid past 2045.
What to Watch Before Our Next Check-In
These milestones will shape our next Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045 update in January:
- October 1: Final 2026 Virginia Energy Plan
- October 13 (proposed): Cumberland County Board of Supervisors hearing on the gas plant
- October: The utility’s 2026 Integrated Resource Plan, which must include a scenario that retires fossil plants by 2045
- December 2: Next RGGI auction
- January 1, 2027: GS-5 data center rate class and Virginia’s Solar Consumer Protection Act take effect on what the new law means for homeowners.
- January 2027: General Assembly session, with data center legislation expected
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the latest on Virginia Clean Economy Act progress 2045?
Virginia is adding clean energy quickly, with offshore wind online, larger storage targets, and a return to RGGI. However, the largest utility’s plans keep natural gas running past 2045, so the 100% target is currently off track.
Is there a 100% renewable energy mandate in Virginia?
Yes. The VCEA requires 100% carbon-free electricity by 2045 for Virginia’s largest utility and by 2050 for Appalachian Power.
What is the primary goal of the Virginia Clean Economy Act?
To move Virginia’s electricity supply to 100% carbon-free sources through annual renewable targets, efficiency standards, and fossil plant retirements.
Which utilities have to comply with the VCEA?
Virginia’s two investor-owned utilities: the state’s largest utility and Appalachian Power. Electric cooperatives are not covered by the RPS.
Is Virginia rejoining RGGI?
It already has. Virginia rejoined RGGI on July 1, 2026, and took part in its first auction since 2023 in September.
How does the VCEA affect my electric bill?
Compliance costs can be passed to customers through riders. RGGI alone is estimated at about $10–13/month, based on the utility’s SCC filing.
Are nuclear power and natural gas considered clean energy under the VCEA?
Nuclear is carbon-free and does not have to retire. Natural gas must retire by the deadlines unless regulators grant a reliability exception.
What happens if a utility misses its RPS target?
It pays deficiency payments of $45 to $75 per megawatt-hour, rising 1% per year, and half of that money funds clean energy job training.
What role do data centers play in meeting VCEA targets?
They drive most new demand, which the utility expects to roughly double by 2045. More demand means more clean energy is needed to hit each year’s target.
Can the VCEA be changed or repealed?
Yes. Any General Assembly session can amend it. In 2026, lawmakers rejected 16 bills that would have repealed or weakened the law.
You Can’t Control the 2045 Timeline, But You Can Control Your Bill
You’re already paying for power. Did you know that you could pay less? Every home is different, so the right answer depends on how you use energy and what your roof can produce.
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